A quasi-decadal pulse linking geomagnetic pole drift and global temperature: HAC-robust multivariate evidence and break diagnostics (1981–2024)
Abstract
This preprint presents a reproducible analysis of co-variation between annual global-mean surface temperature (GMST) and geomagnetic proxies of pole drift/speed over 1981–2024. The results are consistent with the possibility that internal dynamics of the Earth system indirectly influence a quasi-decadal component observed both in geomagnetic pole-drift proxies and in global-mean temperature; the physical mechanism and the direction of causality remain to be determined. The deposit includes the preprint PDF, derived datasets, analysis scripts, and an integrity file to ensure full reproducibility.